Sunday, January 19, 2014

DRAFT AND COMMENTARY

Mission Statement
The goal of Los Macho Hombres is to have fun!
Hence the silly name and lucha libre mascot. In the past I have never been able to resist trading players I like in pursuit of winning. This always led to frustration as I gave up on talent that I had evaluated correctly before they broke out, for example Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy, Josh Gordon.
Or I traded away star players I liked to try to fill holes instead of relying on draft picks and patience, for example Drew Brees & Larry Fitzgerald. And in the end, I would end up being upset by a lesser team in the playoffs or the players I traded for would get injured and buyer's remorse would set in. So, with Los Macho Hombres, these rules are set in place.

#1-Draft players I like and want to root for in addition to talent evaluation.
I think the best players not only have physical ability, but are intelligent.
Intelligent players also seem to stay out of off the field trouble.
#2-No trading of these drafted players once they are on my team.
They can be dropped for waiver claims if they are fringe roster-worthy players.
Part of the fun of dynasty is building a team through drafting and following the careers of players.
I am allowed to trade picks for other picks, however.
#3-Go young with my startup draft selections, ideally age 25 or less.
In the past I have drafted players that were just past their prime (ex. RB's 27+ in age)
in an attempt to fill holes and have a balanced team to "win now". That led to regrets when,
even though I had some contribution from the older players, they really weren't the difference
between making or missing the playoffs- ex. Miles Austin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Frank Gore, etc.

1.1)-Traded back to 1.4 (1.1/3.1/5.1 for 1.4/2.9/4.9) because of internal debate over McCoy, Gordon, Bernard. Leaning Bernard, so I can trade back improving other picks and still get my guy hopefully. McCoy ended up being pick 1.1 [Clock Killerz]


1.4)-Traded back and up again (1.4/2.9/4.9/6.12 for 1.9/2.4/4.4/6.4) putting me in position to get Bernard plus a young WR1 with a higher 2nd. [Regulators]


1.9)-Giovani Bernard/RB/22 Waited a little nervously for Bernard, even though his ADP was around 1.13. Getting back a guy I drafted as a college player in my first Gold league and then traded away before the draft. Looking forward to following his career that I hope will follow the path of a Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy as a top PPR RB.


2.4)-Keenan Allen/WR/22 Same as Gio, I scouted/drafted Allen in my first devy dynasty league, traded him, regreted it, and wanted to get him back on my new startup team. I expect him to produce like a WR1 and drafted him as such, even though a little high.


2.12)-Traded up (2.12/4.4/6.4/9.1 for 2.7/4.7/6.7/9.6) [OC Eagles/Salsa Dancers]


2.7)-Randall Cobb/WR/24 With Cobb still on the board and knowing there would be nobody I really wanted on my team still available at 2.12 I was fortunate to get a trade up. Cobb is a player I enjoy watching, is intelligent, and competitive.


4.7)-Traded up (4.7/12.12 for 4.5/13.12) [boom goes the dynamite]


4.5)-Cam Newton/QB/25 My plan was to wait for a QB like RGIII or Kaepernick in round 6/7. But, when Cam dropped below his avg dynasty ADP, I traded up in front of Dung/Beer Thirty to get him. Newton is only a few months older than Luck and has been a top 10 QB since he entered the league despite a lack of surrounding talent. I look forward to watching him mature into an elite QB with experience and once Carolina drafts a few WR's- which they had better get at least one in the 2014 draft.


4.12)-Traded up (4.12,7.1,9.6 for 4.9,7.9,9.8) [Regulators]


4.9)-Michael Floyd/WR/24 Another young WR I was targeting and felt I couldn't wait and hope he would fall 4 spots further. I was targeting Floyd or Hopkins & Hopkins went at 4.3/39. Floyd's ADP was 26, so a small win to get him down at pick 45. Fitzgerald is back in 2014, which long-term is a good thing for Floyd to get another year with a strong mentor before hopefully becoming the Cards #1WR in 2015.


6.7)-Rueben Randle/WR/23 Andre Ellington was picked by Game Over two spots before this pick, and I was sick to my stomach. I had an offer on the table from Salsa Dancers (6.7/9.8/14.12 for 6.4/10.7/14.7) and instead of accepting I countered, so he made the pick. Randle was the best value at this spot (67) with an ADP of 57.5. I am not thrilled by his talent-level, but he is young and should be a solid #4WR for me.


7.9)-Traded up (7.9/9.8/10.12 for 6.8/11.9/12.4) [Regulators]


6.7)-Jordan Reed/TE/24 "On tilt" after the mistake that cost me Ellington, I made a "what the heck" trade with Regulators for the next pick and took Reed. His concussions are a big risk, but he is young with a high PPR ceiling at a position with not a lot of depth. The Redskins are hurting on defense so I don't see them drafting TE/WR high in the draft, making Reed RGIII's number 2 option after Garcon.


8.12)-Trade up (8.12/11.1 for 8.1/13.8) [boom goes the dynamite]


8.1)-Joique Bell/RB/28 Not thrilled with other RB's remaining, I traded up for the RB I found intriguing despite his advanced age for his position. Bell run's with passion, is in a time-share with Bush who misses games, and Bell hasn't had years of heavy workloads like most RB's his age. He could have 2 or 3 solid fantasy seasons as an older back ala Darren Sproles or Fred Jackson. We will see how this pick works out.


11.9)-Traded up (11.9/13.12/14.12 for 10.6/15.9/17.7) [Beer Thirty]


10.6)-Charles Clay/TE/25  Worried about "insurance" at TE with Jordan Reed's head concerns, I traded up to Clay's ADP to back-up Reed and be a FLEX option. I think he is one of the few weapons the Dolphins have and should match his 2013 production.


12.4)-Traded up (12.4/13.1/15.9 for 11.4/14.4/16.4) [Regulators]


11.4)-Dwayne Allen/TE/24  Debated between Clay & Allen at 10.6 and went Clay because Allen comes with his own injury baggage (hip surgery) and didn't like that much risk. But I like his intelligence, competitiveness, and that he has Luck as his QB. Now I feel like my TE position is well-rounded and deep with 3 viable options.


13.8)-Traded up (13.8/15.1 for 13.3/16.10) [Roughriders]


10.6)-Ben Roethlisberger/QB/32  Roethlisberger was the last QB assured of a rock solid starting spot that I liked. Manuel was available, but I think he will be replaced in a few drafts. Same with Alex Smith/Carson Palmer if their teams have a bad years.
Ironically ended up with Newton/Ben, my '13 QB's in the bad salary cap league I quit.


14.4)-Stedman Bailey/WR/23  Was pleased that Bailey fell to me as my WR5. He may not have size, but I think he displayed sure hands & good route running that could make him a solid PPR possession receiver. His fantasy upside goes up in smoke if the Rams take a WR high in the draft like Watkins or Evans.


16.4)-Benny Cunningham/RB/24 Another Ram that I think I like better than most because of familiarity with the home town team. Stacy seems to get beat up a lot, especially if the Rams continue his heavy workload. Cunningham will be a viable starter should Stacy go down as an above average backup.


16.10)-Traded up (16.10/16.12 for 16.5/17.12) [Game Over]


16.5)-Roy Helu/RB/25  Mining for gold in these low picks I acquired from so many trade-ups, I see Helu as a good upside gamble. Shanahan is out and Jay Gruden is in, which could mean increased playing time for Helu who is the better receiving back.
Had I remembered WR Marquess Wilson (16.9) at the time, he would've been my pick.


17.1)-Joseph Randle/RB/22 Less about my belief in Randle, more about my belief in Murray's injury-prone history and Jerry Jones persistence in giving his draft picks every opportunity to succeed.


17.7)-Kenjon Barner/RB/25 A pick I would probably change. Denard Robinson was probably the better gamble with bigger upside. Barner, while intelligent, is old for a rookie and possesses no spectacular traits.


17.12)-Brice Butler/WR/24 Plus= 6'3" and 213lbs. Minus= Plays for the Raiders.







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